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As police officers and fire fighters stand committed to protecting the public, Public Safety Financial/Galloway stands committed to serving the financial needs of public servants.

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Founded in 1999 by Mike Galloway, a United States Marine Corps veteran and retired Mesa Police Lieutenant. Public Safety Financial/Galloway has a clear mission. Address the specialized issues surrounding government pensions, DROP rollovers, deferred compensation, and investment accounts. We offer a “one-stop” solution for public servants’ investment needs.

With over 280 years of combined public safety expertise and over 260 years of financial service experience, the Public Safety Financial/Galloway team is deeply invested in your family’s financial success.

For more information, please call 877.778.2351.

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INTEGRITY     EXPERIENCE    COMMITMENT

   

#psfgalloway #marketupdate #stockmarket #economic
Feb 6-10, 2017

The stock market continued to make new highs last week. The S&P 500 closed the week up +0.87 %. The index is now up +1.73% in February and +3.66% year-to-date. International stocks are following the trend and the EAFE index (Europe Australasia and the Far East) is now up +3.48% in 2017.

In the absence of major economic news, last week’s rally can be attributed to what is shaping up to be a good earning season for companies making up the S&P 500. After an earnings recession that lasted almost two years (September 2014 – June 2016), things started to improve in the third quarter of 2016 when earnings grew +9.3% year-over-year. So far 70% of S&P 500 companies have reported results for the fourth quarter and we are looking at about +7.5% growth.

Although the market’s Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings (CAPE) ratio appears a bit stretched, continued improvement in earnings and a possible cut in corporate income tax could help reestablish more normal valuations.
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1 week ago

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#psfgalloway #marketupdate #stockmarket #consumer
Jan 30-Feb 3, 2017

The S&P 500 finished the week close to where it started it. For the first three days in February the index is up +0.85 % and +2.76% year to date. International stocks continued to rally and the EAFE index (Europe Australasia and the Far East) is now up +3.49% in 2017.

As it was widely expected the Federal Reserve decided to stay put on Wednesday and kept the overnight rate between 0.50% and 0.75%. Their statement did not change much from the prior meeting in December and the tone of the announcement remained positive as the board still expects the economy to grow at a moderate pace led by solid job growth. The only slight modification came in their comment about inflation where the Fed used more firm language, asserting that inflation “will rise” rather than “is expected to rise”.

And in fact Core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure index), the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, did rise to +1.7%, year-over-year and is closing in on the Fed’s target rate of 2%. The increase in inflation can be partially linked to consumers spending more (+2.8% from a year ago) and saving less in December.
On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released a mostly positive Employment Situation Report. The U.S. economy created 227,000 new nonfarm jobs in January, well ahead of even the most optimistic forecast (195,000). The unemployment rate rose slightly from 4.7% to 4.8% but this is mostly the result of more people being counted in the statistic as they rejoin the workforce. Labor Participation (the percentage of the working-age population either working or looking for work) did rise a decent 0.2% to 62.9% in January. As a reminder individuals are not counted as being unemployed unless they are actively looking for work.

Finally, even though the average workweek remained stable at 34.4 hours, average hourly earnings continues their upward trend and are up +2.5% from January 2016. Since inflation is around +1.7% over the same period (according to the aforementioned PCE index), American workers have enjoyed real (inflation adjusted) wage gains over the past 12 months.
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2 weeks ago

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PSF/Galloway Market Update
#psfgalloway #marketupdate #dowjones #stockmarket

Jan 23-27, 2017

The Dow Jones Industrial Average finally crossed and closed above the 20,000 mark this week as the rest of the market also rallied strongly. For the week the S&P 500 was up +1.04% and the index is now up +2.60% for 2017. Global markets followed suit as the MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia and the Far East) index closed the week up +1.30% and +3.45% year- to-date.

Durable Goods Orders ex-Transportation (which is its more volatile component) matched estimates in December at +0.5%. Importantly, capital goods (buildings, equipment, machines...) were up +0.8% following a strong revised November number of +1.5%. This implies that business investment is strengthening which bodes well for the future.

Fourth quarter Gross Domestic Product growth (GDP) came in at an annualized rate of +1.9%. Although a slowdown from the third quarter’s strong +3.5% was widely expected, the +1.9% reading was somewhat a disappointment compared to the consensus of +2.2%. A positive aspect of the release came from Consumer Spending which represents about 70% of GDP and grew at a solid +2.5%. “Spending is being supported by solid job growth, increased household wealth, higher confidence and improving Compensation” (Wells Fargo Economic Group). The drag came mostly from net-exports which were negatively impacted by the strengthening dollar (+7.1%) in the fourth quarter.

Full year real GDP growth (rather than the annualized quarterly number above) was a mere +1.6% in 2016 partly because of the energy drag we experienced in the first half of the year. Fourth quarter GDP will be revised 3 more times and if recent history is any indication, the final number could end up looking a little bit better.
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3 weeks ago

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PSF/Galloway Market Update
#marketupdate #psfgalloway #stockmarket
Jan 16-20, 2017

Global stock markets have been in a holding pattern for the past couple of weeks, maybe awaiting to find out what will be the first priorities of the new administration. The S&P 500 closed the week down 0.15% and is up +1.54% for the month. The MSCI EAFE index (Europe Australasia and the Far East) also has not moved much in the last two weeks (- 0.11% between Jan. 6 and Jan. 20). And finally the same could be said about the bond market. As of January 20, the Barclay’s US Aggregate bond index was flat Year-to-date (+0.03%).

A couple of key items were released last week. Industrial Production (IP) gained +0.8% in December following a sharp - 0.7% decline in November. IP can be volatile from month to month so it is best to look at it on an annual basis and, after a couple of lean years, it looks like the index (the orange line on the chart) is starting to turn the corner. Closely correlated to industrial production, the Capacity Utilization Rate (the extent to which a nation actually uses its installed productive capacity) also ticked up slightly to 75.5% which implies that we have excess capacity. Excess capacity can be a good thing under certain conditions as it gives factories the ability to produce more rather than increase prices (driving up inflation) when demand picks up in an improving economy.

Finally, following the pattern set by the Producer Price Index (PPI) two weeks ago, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed that inflation is picking up some steam. Removing Food and Energy, the two more volatile components of the index, CPI is up +2.2% year-over-year, in line with the target for a healthy economy. Also on Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen spoke in San Francisco: “[...] it's fair to say the economy is near maximum employment and inflation is moving toward our goal [...] Although inflation has been running below our 2% objective for quite some time, we have seen it start inching back toward 2% last year as the job market continued to improve and as the effects of a big drop in oil prices faded," she said. As a reminder the Fed looks at the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) deflator and not CPI when gauging inflation.

Given the current economic conditions, Ms. Yellen confirmed that she and most of the board members agreed that it made sense to raise the overnight rate “a few” times this year with the goal of getting to about 3%, which referred to as the “long-term neutral rate”, by the end of 2019. Neutral simply means that in Ms. Yellen’s estimate a 3% Fed Fund rate would neither cause excessive growth nor or a sharp slow-down of the economy.
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1 month ago

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PSF/Galloway Market Update
#marketupdate #psfgalloway #december #retail #sales
Jan 9-13, 2017

There wasn’t much news to move the market last week and the market in fact didn’t move much. The S&P 500 finished the week close to flat at -0.10%. The index is now up +1.67% in 2017. International markets fare a little better so far this year as the MSCI EAFE Index (Europe Asia and the Far East) is up +1.94%.

The main key indicator released last week is the December retail sales number which was up a decent +0.6%. Excluding auto sales however the increase was only +0.2% implying that the holiday season was fairly slow for most retailers. The exception being online stores whose sales were up +1.3% in December alone and +11.4% year-over-year. Online sales represented about 10.2% of total retail sales in 2016, up from 9.4% in 2015.

Overall, retail sales are up +4.1% since December 2015, reflecting a mostly optimistic population. “Consumers this season benefited from higher wages, lower unemployment, and stronger stock markets and home values.” (source: CNBC).

Inflation is showing some signs of life as the Producer Price Index (PPI) was up +1.6% in 2016. Increases in the PPI tend to trickle down to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over time. The CPI will be released this Wednesday. As a reminder, the Federal Reserve is targeting a 2% rate of inflation for consumers. Friday’s increase for producers may not get us there but it is a step in the right direction.
Source: NFIB Not a market mover but of note, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index soared in December to levels not seen since

2004 with half of the small business owners expecting the economy to improve.

Finally, we are also seeing some signs of improvements in Europe. Eurozone Industrial Production grew sharply in November (+3.2% year-over-year) and even in the UK (+2.0% y-o-y) where we have yet to see a significant impact from the Brexit referendum result.
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1 month ago

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Pension Reform Seminar

January 26, 2017, 10:30am

Green Valley Fire District

Come join PSF/Galloway for a seminar addressing Prop 124 and Senate Bill 1428 while learning how to save in your Deferred Compensation Plan. RSVP by email at 411@galloway911.com or call 480-325-8668.

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1 month ago

#psfgalloway #MLKday #closed #marketholiday

PSF/Galloway will be closed today in honor of Martin Luther King Jr. Day.

We will be back in the office at 8am Tuesday morning ready to take your calls and answer your questions.

Stay safe,
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1 month ago

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PSF/Galloway Market Update
#psfgalloway #marketupdate #economy

Jan 2-6, 2017

The S&P 500 started the year fairly well with the index rising +1.73 % this week after closing 2016 up +11.96%. The 20,000 mark is proving to be a hard ceiling to go through for the Dow Jones Industrial Average as Friday’s intra-day high for the index was 19,999.63.

March 2017 will mark the 8th anniversary of our current economic expansion. Even though Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth has been slower than past expansions, this will be the third longest cycle going back to 1900.

Despite its age the US economy is still showing signs of life. The December Manufacturing Index released last Wednesday was very strong with new orders expanding to a two year high, which bodes well for factory jobs in the near future. On Thursday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released the minutes from their last meeting. The notes showed a cautious disposition in regards to the implementation of the incoming administration’s economic program. The goal is still to raise the Fed Fund rate at least 3 more times by the end of 2017 which implies that Fed members think that the economy still has room to grow.

Finally, Friday’s unemployment report indicated a slight bump in the unemployment rate from 4.6% to 4.7% in December. There are two ways the unemployment rate can go up: one is when people lose their jobs and the other is when businesses are not creating enough jobs to meet the demand of new individuals looking for work. We find ourselves in that second alternative. Non-farm payroll rose by 156,000 new jobs in December, which was on the low-end of economists’ estimates, while employment participation (the percentage of individuals over the age of 16 actively looking for work) increased... In other words, many new people are actively looking for work and there aren’t enough jobs (appropriate for their skills) to satisfy the demand. The key element of this job report however was the eye-popping change in hourly earnings. Wages went up +0.4% on average in December alone bringing the year-over- year increase to +2.9% boosting fears of a sharp increase in the inflation rate in the near future.
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1 month ago

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#marketupdate #psfgalloway #december #newyear #christmas

Dec 26-30, 2016

So much for the Santa Claus rally that is supposed to occur in the 5 days that precede and 5 days that follow Christmas. The S&P 500 was down -1.10% for the week. The index finished December up +1.98% and +11.96% for the year. The Dow Jones also failed to hit the 20,000 mark.

Not much happened from an economic perspective in that last week of the year. Consumer confidence continued its multi-year climb to new a new recover high. Leading the index higher was the expectations that more jobs would be created in the months to come and that overall income would increase significantly.

The only other somewhat significant announcement to come out last Thursday was our trade balance. Our trade deficit expanded more than expected to -$65.3 billion in November. Both our imports continued to increase (+1.2%) and our exports continue to fall (-1.0%) in November. Our trade is looking quite weak in the fourth quarter (down -3.5% so far), partly because the US Dollar has strengthened by 6.2% since September 30, making our products more expensive abroad and foreign products cheaper to import. This will negatively impact our Gross Domestic Product growth for the last quarter of the year as Net Trade represent about 3% of GDP.

This wraps up 2016, a year which was good for US equity markets but not so much for foreign developed markets overall with the MSCI EAFE (Europe Asia and the Far East) index up a mere +1.51%. Emerging Markets fared better up +11.60% and the All Country World Index (ACWI), which includes domestic and foreign developed and emerging countries up +8.48 % as a result. Bond markets globally eked out a small gain with the Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index rising +2.65% and the Global Aggregate Bond Index +2.09%.

2017 will be an interesting year as the US prepares to have its first president with no prior government or military experience and the Netherlands, France and Germany will face important elections which could reshape the future of the European Union.
Wishing you all the best for the New Year!
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2 months ago

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#newyearsday #happyholiday #staysafe

In observance of the New Year's Day,
Public Safety Financial/Galloway will be closed today.

We will be reopen for business and ready to assist you tomorrow, January 3rd @ 8am.

Stay Safe,
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2 months ago

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PSF/Galloway Market Update
#psfgalloway #marketupdate #index #financialadvisor

Dec 19-23, 2016

Despite a slight increase for the week, the run for DOW 20,000 did not pan out. The index closed at 19,933.94, just 0.31% short of the milestone. The S&P 500 also ended the week mildly higher and is now up +3.1% in December and +13.2% for 2016 with about half that the return for the year happening since the election.

Most of the significant economic releases came in on Thursday and overall the data was a bit disappointing. Durable goods orders were down sharply in November (-4.6%) missing the consensus estimate (-4.0%). Making matters worse, when excluding defense spending the slide was even an even larger -6.0%. Durable goods orders are not the same as spending on durable goods by the end consumer which is included in Gross Domestic Product (GDP), however new orders can provide some information on future factory activity and factory jobs.

Personal income was flat (+0.0%) in November, also missing the +0.3% mark set by economists. One of the problems for consumers is that while income growth is slow, inflation has picked up recently. As result, real (inflation adjusted) disposable income fell back -0.1%% in November after climbing +0.2% the month before.
Closely linked to income, consumer spending was up only +0.2% vs. the +0.3% expectation. For October and November, spending is up +2.0% on an annualized basis which is short of the +3.0% we had in the third quarter. Consumer spending represent 70% of GDP so the weaker than expected number explains why estimates for fourth quarter GDP continue to slide and are now around +2.5% according to the Atlanta Fed. Wells Fargo is a lot less optimistic, forecasting only +1.3% growth.

The only bright spot for the week was the final Third Quarter GDP number which came out at an annualized rate of +3.5% (up from the +3.2% previous estimate). Annualizing quarterly numbers can be deceiving however and GDP is only up +1.4% on a trailing 12 month basis.

Next week will be short (4 days) and light on economic news with International Trade being the only significant data release. Net exports of Goods and Services represent about 3% of our GDP.
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2 months ago

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In observance of the Christmas Holiday,
Public Safety Financial/Galloway will be closed today.

We will be back in the office ready to help you and answer any questions on December 27th @ 8am.

Stay Safe!
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2 months ago

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#holidays #psfgalloway #adoptafamily

This year, PSF/Galloway was fortunate enough to adopt 2 different Mesa families.

All of the kids were given a warm jacket, shoes, and outfits.

Both families were given grocery and gas gift cards, food certificates, a table full of presents, Christmas dinner with sides and desserts.

We are very grateful to be able to help these families as much as we did and appreciate everyone at PSF/Galloway for contributing.

Thanks to all who made this a huge success.

Stay safe and Happy Holidays!
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2 months ago

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